Notes from
the work.

Software, systems, and the things I’m learning along the way. From first principles to AI in production.

Find something to read

All notes 2

A little theory. A lot of practice.

Olive and orange points separated by a curved line, with a small boxed sample

Machine learning8 min read

Likelihood is a function of the parameter

Derive a Bernoulli likelihood, compare sample-size effects and serial dependence, and reproduce why equal success counts need not mean equal sequence probabilities.

20 Oct 2026

Foundation

Machine learning8 min read

Expected loss and variance from a tiny discrete distribution

Calculate expected loss, variance and the distribution of a two-case average, then test how copied observations and rare large failures change the evaluation.

17 Oct 2026